The report is called the Home Opportunity Index.  It measures what percentage of U.S. homes sold during a quarterly period were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,400.

Last quarter was almost 74%.  That’s an absurdly high number.  In the past 8 quarters, the Index exceeded 70%.  Prior to 2009, it rarely topped 65% and you can see the housing bubble appearing when you look at 2006-2007.  When 40% of homes are affordable to median wage earners, something’s gotta give.  It did.

Home affordability is a function of really only three things:  home values, mortgage rates and the median income.

Mortgage rates hit all time lows while home prices are still low.  That’s your recipe for record affordability….90-180 days ago.

Like everything else in real estate, this is a local stat.  Indiana, you have Elkhart/Goshen.  A whopping 97% of the homes were affordable to families making the area’s median income.  On the other end of the spectrum, the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ tracking area mopped up last place for the 11th consecutive quarter.  Just 25% of the home in the area were affordable to families earning the area’s median income.

You can check out all 225 metro areas on the NAHB website.

Real estate is local.  Mortgage rates move up and down across all markets.  With mortgage rates on the rise and evidence that says home supply could push prices higher, home affordability is on the decline.

Home affordability reached an all-time high in 2010′s last quarter. Unfortunately for home buyers , it’s been a different story since, however.

As mortgage rates cratered, and with home values soft, the Home Opportunity Index reached its highest level in 20 years. The index is published by the National Association of Home Builders.

Close to 74 percent of the new and existing homes sold between October-December 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,400. It’s the 8th straight quarter in which the Home Affordability Index surpassed 70 percent.

Prior to 2009, the HOI rarely topped 65 percent.

That said, though, as with everything in real estate, home affordability is a local event. For example, take the Elkhart/Goshen area of northern Indiana. 97 percent of homes sold there last quarter were affordable to families making the area’s median income.

This level of affordability is likely related to state capital Indianapolis, a perennial top-scorer itself.

For the second straight quarter — and the 22nd time dating back to 2006 — Indianapolis led all major metropolitan areas with a 93.5 affordability rating.

Meanwhile, on the opposite end of the home affordability spectrum, the “Least Affordable Major City” title went to the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area for the 11th consecutive quarter. Just 25.5 percent of homes were affordable to households earning the area median income.

It’s a a 6-point improvement from Q2 2010, however.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are viewable on the NAHB website but regardless of where you live, it’s important to remember that rising mortgage rates this year have made homes less affordable in all markets across the United States. We won’t see a repeat record in this quarter’s HOI once it’s calculated and published.

Home buyers have lost 10% of their purchasing power since November, and mortgage rates look poised to rise even more.

If your plans call for buying a home later this year, consider moving up your time frame. The long-term costs of homeownership are rising, and affordability, therefore, is falling.

According to the National Association of Home Builders’ quarterly Home Opportunity Index, 72.5 percent of all new and existing homes sold between June-September 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income.

When compared to historical norms, it is an incredible time to be a home buyer.  Prior to 2009, the Home Opportunity Index rarely topped 65. The index has remained above 70 ever since.

All real estate is local, though, and on a city-by-city basis, home affordability varied last quarter.

For example, 96% of homes sold in Kokomo, IN are affordable for families earning the area’s median income. This handily beat the average figure and led the nation. Looking at major cities, Indianapolis led the pack.    93% of homes in Indianapolis are affordable to families earning the area’s median income. This ranks #9 nationwide.

On the opposite end of the affordability scale is the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ region. For the 10th consecutive quarter, the New York Metro region ranks last in U.S. home affordability. Just 23% of homes are affordable to families earning the local median income, although this is 3 points higher versus Q1 2010.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available online.

Regardless of where your hometown ranks relative to its neighbors, home affordability remains high as compared to historical values.   That said, with mortgage rates rising and home sales expected to climb this winter, it’s unlikely that the Home Opportunity Index will improve.

Buying a home may never be this inexpensive again. If you planned to buy in mid-2011, it probably doesn’t make sense to wait.

Last quarter, with home prices still relatively low and mortgage rates making new, all-time lows almost weekly, the cost of home ownership was extraordinarily low in Illinois and most U.S. markets.

According to the National Association of Home Builders’ quarterly Home Opportunity Index, 72.5 percent of all new and existing homes sold between June-September 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income. This ties the all-time high for home affordability, set in the first quarter of 2009.

The data also underscores that, when compared to historical norms, it’s a fantastic time to be a Oak Park home buyer.

Prior to 2009, the Home Opportunity Index rarely topped 65. The index has remained above 70 ever since.

All real estate is local, though, and on a city-by-city basis, home affordability varied last quarter.

For example, 96% of homes sold in Kokomo, IN are affordable for families earning the area’s median income. This handily beat the average figure and led the nation. Looking at major cities, Indianapolis led the pack.

93% of homes in Indianapolis are affordable to families earning the area’s median income. This ranks #9 nationwide.

On the opposite end of the affordability scale is the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ region. For the 10th consecutive quarter, the New York Metro region ranks last in U.S. home affordability. Just 23% of homes are affordable to families earning the local median income, although this is 3 points higher versus Q1 2010.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available online.

Regardless of where your hometown ranks relative to its neighbors, home affordability remains high as compared to historical values. That said, with mortgage rates rising and home sales expected to climb this winter, it’s unlikely that the Home Opportunity Index will improve.

Buying a home may never be this inexpensive again. If you planned to buy in mid-2011, consider moving up your time frame.

So, what are home values doing? According to issuing agency, the Federal Home Finance Agency, the June’s values dropped fell 0.3 percent in June and values are down a total of 1.7% over the past year.

So, if you are a homeowner and/or home buyer, which model is right?   Most likely, both are irrelevant.

While these are the most widely utilized statistical measures of housing, they are not good statistical samples.

Let’s look as Case Shiller first.  It is 20 cities.  They aren’t even the 20 biggest cities.  Case-Shiller represents a “comprehensive look” at 9% of the total US population.   Aside from it being a small group, it further lumps in the metro in aggregate.  So, if you are looking at home values in Lincoln Park or Wicker Park, how does a composite view of Chicago help identify your particular home on your particular street?

The Home Price Index tracks home sales in every city, in every state.  After that, the HPI falls off in terms of having any widespread use.  It only includes loans backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  That means it excludes jumbo loans and FHA mortgages.

Think about that in context of Chicago mortgages.  FHA is far and away the most condo-friendly product in the market these days.   By excluding all but Fannie and Freddie loans, you’ve just excluded the majority of the recent condo sales in Chicago.   It also excludes any jumbo mortgages, capped at $417,000 on a 1-unit property here.  The Home Price Index starts out with a wide geographical sample, but then eliminates a significant percentage of the loans.   When FHA mortgage market share goes up, the reliability of the HPI goes down.

If you are looking to trade housing and housing related stocks, a look at Case-Shiller or the HPI can be helpful in forecasting builder confidence.  If you’re looking to buy or sell a home, there is only one report that I would trust.  It’s the one that I’d get from a real estate agent.  The market conditions will vary between the West Loop and South Loop, even if the national reports correctly identify them both as being in the Chicago metro statistical area.

The private-sector Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 5 percent nationwide in June. The government’s own Home Price Index, however, reached a different conclusion.

According to the Federal Home Finance Agency, month-to-month home values fell 0.3 percent in June, and values are down by 1.7 percent from June 2009.

So, as a home buyer and/or homeowner in Oak Park , by which valuation model should you make your bets?  Perhaps neither. 

This is because both the Case-Shiller Index and the Home Price have inherent methodology flaws, the most glaring of which is their respective sample sets. 

The Case-Shiller sample set, for example, comes from just 20 cities across the country — and they’re not even the 20 most populated cities. Together, the Case-Shiller cities represent just 9 percent of the overall U.S. population. 

That’s hardly representative of the housing stock overall.

By comparison, the Home Price Index tracks home sales everywhere — every city in every state — but it specifically excludes certain properties.  The Home Price Index does not track sales of homes for which the financing comes from agencies other than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. This means that as FHA loans grow in popularity, the pool of Home Price Index-eligible homes is reducing. 

The HPI ignores homes backed by “jumbo” loans, too.

Therefore, the “right” model for home values cannot come from national data at all — it can only come locally. Neither Case-Shiller nor the government has the tools to get as granular as a neighborhood like Bucktown. A real estate agent in the area does, however.

The best way to get a pulse for what’s happening in markets right now is to talk to somebody with good data.

According to the quarterly Home Opportunity Index as published by the National Association of Home Builders, more than 72 percent of all new and existing homes sold between April-June 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income.

Like any home statistic, real estate is local.  For example, the Q2 winner as most affordable was Syracuse, NY.  This is sort of staggering, but 97.2% of homes sold in Syracuse were affordable for families making the median income.  Indianapolis won the first quarter of this year.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the least affordable major city went to the “New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ” metropolitan statistical area for the 9th consecutive quarter.  Just 19.9% of homes are affordable to families earning the local median income, down 1 percent from last quarter.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are viewable on the NAHB website but regardless of where you live, buying a home is as affordable as it’s ever been in history.

All things equal, buying a home may never be this inexpensive again. If you were planning to purchase later this year, you may want to move up your time frame.

With home prices holding firm and mortgage rates still dropping, home affordability is reaching new heights.

According to the quarterly Home Opportunity Index as published by the National Association of Home Builders, more than 72 percent of all new and existing homes sold between April-June 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income.

It’s a slightly higher reading as compared to last quarter, and the second highest reading in the survey’s history.

As with all aspects of real estate, however, home affordability varies by locale. 

For example, 97.2% of homes sold in Syracuse were affordable for families making the area’s median income, earning the New York city its first “Most Affordable Major City” designation.  Indianapolis was the first quarter winner.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the “Least Affordable Major City” title went to the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area for the 9th consecutive quarter.  Just 19.9% of homes are affordable to families earning the local median income, down 1 percent from last quarter.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are viewable on the NAHB website but regardless of where you live, buying a home is as affordable as it’s ever been in history. Furthermore, because home values are in recovery and mortgage rates may rise, the market is ripe for home buyers in Wicker Park.

All things equal, buying a home may never be this inexpensive again. If you were planning to purchase later this year, you may want to move up your time frame.

Listed as “Top 25″ and also comprehensively by state, CNNMoney.com’s home price forecasts puts Santa Rosa, California at the top of 2010′s home appreciation list and Hanford, California at its bottom.

The 10 cities projected for highest home appreciation in 2010 are:

1. Santa Rosa, CA : +6.0%
2. Cheyenne, WY : +4.7%
3. Kennewick, WA : +4.6%
4. Merced, CA : +4.4%
5. Bremerton, WA : +4.2%
6. Fairbanks, AK : +4.2%
7. Corvallis, OR : +4.1%
8. Tacoma, WA : +3.9%
9. Anchorage, AK : +3.8%
10. Bend, OR : +3.3%

The Pacific Northwest is the region most heavily-represented among price gainers. The Southeast and Middle Atlantic are most represented on the under-perform list.

However, just because a city’s homes are expected to appreciate (or depreciate) in 2010, that doesn’t mean that every home within its limits will follow suit.  Real estate cannot be grouped on a city level like CNNMoney.com tries to. There will always be areas in demand within city limits in which prices rise, just as there will be out-of-demand areas in which prices fall.

Real estate data can’t be grouped by city or even by ZIP code, really.   Real Estate Is Local!!!

When we say “real estate is local”,  it means that every street in every town has a distinct set of traits that drives its home values. Homes that are one block closer to the train; or, homes that are facing north; or, homes that are made of brick. Each of these characteristics can affect a home’s desirability which, in turn, can affects its sales price.

National surveys can’t capture “essence” like this. They only report on the aggregate.  Reports like CNN Money’s are notable, they are fun to read, but they are not good tools for forecasting real estate values.  In major metro cities, you might well have homes in the $1MM+ range in the same city as homes in the $50k range.   No slight to CNN, but you can’t forecast real estate values when you lump everything by city.

For local real estate data, look to established, publicly available websites and to active, local real estate agents.  Both will have data and insight that can help you.  National surveys often make for good headlines, but do little to help first time homebuyers find good value.